The short version
- An ETF falls when the shares it holds fall. A FTSE 100 ETF falls with the FTSE 100.
- UK shares have had 8 falls of 20% or more after inflation since 1871. The worst, in 1972–1974, wiped out 72% of their buying power.
- Each time, shares went on to recover to their previous peak, after between 3 and 13 years.
- A fall only becomes a permanent loss if you sell at the bottom, or if the investments never recover.
Part of Worries and myths. For the big picture, see how often UK shares have lost money since 1871.
- 8falls of 20% or more after inflation since 1871
- 72%the deepest, from 1972 to 1974
- 3–13 yrsto get back to the previous peak, including dividends
What happens to an ETF in a crash
- Its price falls with what it holds. A FTSE 100 ETF falls with the FTSE 100. A global ETF falls with world markets.
- You still own the same number of units. Their value has dropped, but nothing has been taken away. A fall becomes a permanent loss if you sell low, or if the investments never recover.
- It keeps trading. ETFs are bought and sold on the stock exchange throughout a crash, though the gap between buying and selling prices can widen when markets are turbulent.
- The fund doesn’t go bust because markets fall. A UCITS ETF’s assets are held separately from the provider’s own money. What can go wrong with an ETF covers this.
- Dividends may shrink. Companies under pressure often cut their payouts, so an ETF’s income can fall too.
Every big UK fall since 1871
Using 150 years of UK data, I looked for every time shares fell at least 20% below their previous peak after inflation, and how long they took to get back.
UK shares have fallen 20% or more after inflation 8 times since 1871
How far shares stood below their previous peak at the end of each year, after inflation and including dividends
Source: Jordà-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database (R6), UK, 1871–2020. Total returns with dividends reinvested, before fees and tax. Analysis: Invest in ETFs. Chart licensed CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Show the data
| Year | Below previous peak |
|---|---|
| 1871 | 0.0% |
| 1872 | 0.0% |
| 1873 | 0.0% |
| 1874 | 0.0% |
| 1875 | 0.0% |
| 1876 | 0.0% |
| 1877 | 0.0% |
| 1878 | 0.0% |
| 1879 | 0.0% |
| 1880 | 0.0% |
| 1881 | 0.0% |
| 1882 | 0.0% |
| 1883 | 0.0% |
| 1884 | 0.0% |
| 1885 | 0.0% |
| 1886 | 0.0% |
| 1887 | 0.0% |
| 1888 | 0.0% |
| 1889 | 0.0% |
| 1890 | 0.0% |
| 1891 | −1.1% |
| 1892 | −1.1% |
| 1893 | −0.5% |
| 1894 | 0.0% |
| 1895 | 0.0% |
| 1896 | 0.0% |
| 1897 | 0.0% |
| 1898 | 0.0% |
| 1899 | 0.0% |
| 1900 | 0.0% |
| 1901 | 0.0% |
| 1902 | 0.0% |
| 1903 | 0.0% |
| 1904 | 0.0% |
| 1905 | 0.0% |
| 1906 | 0.0% |
| 1907 | −1.3% |
| 1908 | 0.0% |
| 1909 | 0.0% |
| 1910 | 0.0% |
| 1911 | 0.0% |
| 1912 | 0.0% |
| 1913 | −3.4% |
| 1914 | −3.2% |
| 1915 | −11.7% |
| 1916 | −27.1% |
| 1917 | −36.2% |
| 1918 | −36.9% |
| 1919 | −37.2% |
| 1920 | −57.2% |
| 1921 | −53.5% |
| 1922 | −31.7% |
| 1923 | −26.7% |
| 1924 | −11.3% |
| 1925 | 0.0% |
| 1926 | 0.0% |
| 1927 | 0.0% |
| 1928 | 0.0% |
| 1929 | −13.5% |
| 1930 | −15.3% |
| 1931 | −29.3% |
| 1932 | −2.6% |
| 1933 | 0.0% |
| 1934 | 0.0% |
| 1935 | 0.0% |
| 1936 | 0.0% |
| 1937 | −15.9% |
| 1938 | −25.3% |
| 1939 | −26.0% |
| 1940 | −39.8% |
| 1941 | −33.3% |
| 1942 | −26.2% |
| 1943 | −20.8% |
| 1944 | −13.3% |
| 1945 | −10.2% |
| 1946 | 0.0% |
| 1947 | −9.0% |
| 1948 | −18.6% |
| 1949 | −25.3% |
| 1950 | −20.2% |
| 1951 | −20.8% |
| 1952 | −28.6% |
| 1953 | −14.2% |
| 1954 | 0.0% |
| 1955 | 0.0% |
| 1956 | −13.6% |
| 1957 | −17.6% |
| 1958 | 0.0% |
| 1959 | 0.0% |
| 1960 | 0.0% |
| 1961 | −1.4% |
| 1962 | −5.0% |
| 1963 | 0.0% |
| 1964 | −8.4% |
| 1965 | −2.3% |
| 1966 | −9.7% |
| 1967 | 0.0% |
| 1968 | 0.0% |
| 1969 | −16.2% |
| 1970 | −24.1% |
| 1971 | 0.0% |
| 1972 | 0.0% |
| 1973 | −34.2% |
| 1974 | −71.7% |
| 1975 | −42.4% |
| 1976 | −49.0% |
| 1977 | −34.1% |
| 1978 | −33.4% |
| 1979 | −33.3% |
| 1980 | −21.9% |
| 1981 | −20.6% |
| 1982 | −5.7% |
| 1983 | 0.0% |
| 1984 | 0.0% |
| 1985 | 0.0% |
| 1986 | 0.0% |
| 1987 | 0.0% |
| 1988 | 0.0% |
| 1989 | 0.0% |
| 1990 | −15.5% |
| 1991 | −5.1% |
| 1992 | 0.0% |
| 1993 | 0.0% |
| 1994 | −7.8% |
| 1995 | 0.0% |
| 1996 | 0.0% |
| 1997 | 0.0% |
| 1998 | 0.0% |
| 1999 | 0.0% |
| 2000 | −6.7% |
| 2001 | −20.0% |
| 2002 | −38.6% |
| 2003 | −27.2% |
| 2004 | −19.1% |
| 2005 | −3.6% |
| 2006 | 0.0% |
| 2007 | 0.0% |
| 2008 | −32.2% |
| 2009 | −14.4% |
| 2010 | −5.4% |
| 2011 | −12.6% |
| 2012 | −4.6% |
| 2013 | 0.0% |
| 2014 | −0.3% |
| 2015 | 0.0% |
| 2016 | 0.0% |
| 2017 | 0.0% |
| 2018 | −11.8% |
| 2019 | 0.0% |
| 2020 | −10.2% |
| Peak to low | Fall after inflation | Back to the peak by | Years from peak | What was happening |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1912–1920 | −57% | 1925 | 13 | The First World War and the inflation that followed |
| 1928–1931 | −29% | 1933 | 5 | The Great Depression |
| 1936–1940 | −40% | 1946 | 10 | The run-up to and start of the Second World War |
| 1946–1952 | −29% | 1954 | 8 | – |
| 1968–1970 | −24% | 1971 | 3 | – |
| 1972–1974 | −72% | 1983 | 11 | The oil shock, high inflation and a banking crisis |
| 1999–2002 | −39% | 2006 | 7 | The dot-com crash |
| 2007–2008 | −32% | 2013 | 6 | The global financial crisis |
Every one of these falls was eventually recovered, measured in buying power with dividends reinvested. But “eventually” ranged from 3 to 13 years from the peak, and the worst fall, in 1972–1974, took until 1983 to make good.
To try your own start and end years, use the historical returns explorer.
Crashes are a normal part of investing. What matters most is not being forced to sell during one.
This data is yearly, so it only sees where prices ended each December. A fall that recovered within the same year doesn’t show up. That’s why the sharp fall in early 2020 isn’t listed: by the end of the year UK shares were down 9% in pounds, not 20%.
What helps when markets fall
- An emergency fund in cash, so you’re never forced to sell investments at a low point to pay a bill.
- A long time horizon. Money you’ll need within five years shouldn’t depend on a recovery that might take longer.
- A wide spread. A global index ETF holds thousands of companies, so no single company’s collapse can sink it.
- Knowing it’s coming. Falls of 20% or more have happened 8 times in 150 years in the UK alone. Expecting one makes it easier to sit tight.
If you are worried about buying at a record high, the same UK data show what happened next.
About the data
- Source: the Jordà-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database (release 6), which economists use for long-run returns. These figures use its UK series for 1871 to 2020, the latest year it covers.
- Shares means the UK stock market’s total return: price changes plus dividends reinvested, before fees and tax. An index ETF tracks something similar, minus its small annual fee.
- Cash means the interest on short-term government bills, a standard stand-in for savings. Real savings accounts have paid more or less than this at different times.
- After inflation means adjusted using the UK consumer price index.
- Periods are whole calendar years, overlapping: 1871–1880, 1872–1881 and so on. Yearly data hides falls that recovered within the same year.
- This is the UK market only, and the past is no guarantee of the future.
The analysis script and the derived data are kept with the site’s source files, so anyone can check the sums.
This page describes what has happened in the past. It isn't a forecast or advice about what you should do. Investments can fall as well as rise, and you may get back less than you put in. Read the full disclaimer.
Sources
- Macrohistory Database, release 6, Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick and Alan M. Taylor. Consulted 13 October 2026. Licensed CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
- Jordà, Knoll, Kuvshinov, Schularick and Taylor (2019), "The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015", Quarterly Journal of Economics 134(3).
- Jordà, Schularick and Taylor (2017), "Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts", NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016, volume 31.
Analysis run 13 October 2026.