Tools and data
ETF trend check: which way have popular ETFs been moving?
Eight simple trend rules from academic research, applied each month to 18 widely used UK-listed ETFs. It describes the trend. It doesn’t tell you what to do.
By The Off-Duty Economist Updated 19 October 2026 Prices to the end of September 2026
The short version
- Trend rules compare a fund’s price with its own past: is it above its average over the last 9 or 12 months, and is it higher than it was 9 or 12 months ago?
- At the end of September 2026, 11 of the 18 ETFs were in an up-trend, 7 in a down-trend and none mixed. Every share ETF was up and every bond ETF was down.
- Trends change often. For a typical ETF here, the 12-month rule changed direction about 2 times a year, so most trends don’t last long.
- Researchers use rules like these to test whether past prices help predict future returns. The evidence is mixed, and nothing on this page is a reason to buy or sell.
- 11 of 18ETFs in an up-trend at the end of September 2026
- 7in a down-trend
- 1.8times a year a typical ETF’s 12-month rule changed direction
- 8rules, from a 2014 study of US stock market returns
Where each ETF's trend stands
Each row shows the eight rules for one ETF at the end of September 2026. A filled square means the rule points up; an empty one means it points down. Hover over or tab to a square to see what it checks, and open a row to see the price against its 12-month average over time.
rule points uprule points downFirst six: moving averages. Last two: momentum.
Month-end prices to the end of September 2026. Up-trend: 6 or more of the 8 rules up. Down-trend: 2 or fewer. Mixed: 3 to 5.
How the eight rules work
All eight rules look only at the fund’s own past prices, taken at the end of each month. Six compare a short average of recent prices with a longer one; two simply ask whether the price is higher than it was 9 or 12 months ago. Averaging the last two or three months, rather than using the latest price alone, makes a rule slower to react to one unusual month.
| Rule | Points up when | What it is checking |
|---|---|---|
| Price vs 9-month average | this month’s price is above its average over the last 9 months | Whether the price has broken above its recent level |
| Price vs 12-month average | this month’s price is above its average over the last 12 months | The same, over a full year |
| 2-month vs 9-month average | the average of the last 2 months is above the 9-month average | A smoothed version, less affected by one odd month |
| 2-month vs 12-month average | the average of the last 2 months is above the 12-month average | As above, over a year |
| 3-month vs 9-month average | the average of the last 3 months is above the 9-month average | Smoother still: slower to turn |
| 3-month vs 12-month average | the average of the last 3 months is above the 12-month average | The slowest of the eight |
| 9-month momentum | the price is at least as high as 9 months ago | Simple direction over 9 months |
| 12-month momentum | the price is at least as high as 12 months ago | Simple direction over a year |
An ETF counts as in an up-trend when six or more rules point up, and in a down-trend when two or fewer do. Anything in between is mixed. Those cut-offs are this site’s, chosen to keep the labels simple; the rules themselves come from the research.
What the research found, and what it didn't
The rules come from a study by Christopher Neely, David Rapach, Jun Tu and Guofu Zhou, published in Management Science in 2014. They found that rules like these helped forecast the returns of the whole US stock market between 1951 and 2011, mostly because they tended to turn down near the start of recessions. That is a finding about the past, about one market, and about forecasting a little better than chance. It is not a trading system.
Three things count against using them to buy and sell ETFs. Trends change often: here the 12-month rule changed direction about 2 times a year for a typical ETF, and every change would mean selling and buying back, with dealing costs each time and the risk of being out of the market when it recovers. Selling outside an ISA or pension can mean a capital gains tax bill. And a rule that points down describes what has already happened to the price, not what will happen next.
For the evidence on trying to time the market, see Lump sum or monthly? and Will I lose money investing?
What this page is, and isn't
It shows, with fixed rules anyone can check, which way these funds’ prices have been moving. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any of them, and the list is not a selection of the best ETFs: it is a mix of widely used funds, chosen to cover shares, bonds, gold and property. The trends are updated once a month, after the month ends.
This page describes past price trends using fixed rules anyone can check. It isn't a forecast or advice about what to buy or sell. Investments can fall as well as rise, and you may get back less than you put in. Read the full disclaimer.
Sources
- Neely, C. J., Rapach, D. E., Tu, J. and Zhou, G. (2014), “Forecasting the equity risk premium: the role of technical indicators”, Management Science 60(7), 1772–1791. The eight rules on this page are the paper’s price-based rules.
- Closing prices of each ETF’s London listing, from Yahoo Finance, to the end of September 2026. Only the trends and price changes worked out from them are shown here.
- Method: the eight price-based rules of the 2014 paper, worked out from month-end closing prices of each fund’s London listing.
Trends worked out 19 October 2026.